I don’t sell access to this investing service on this site anymore, but I still trade the recommendations. Since I have all of my previous reviews here, this seems like a good place to keep posting them.
For some background, I don’t count a trade as a winner/loser until it’s sold, or expires. So I gauge the returns of my system based on all the trades that expire on the same expiration date. So my reporting lags about 2 years, meaning I currently have trades in my portfolio that will expire in 2018. I won’t know until then how well I’m doing now.
Here’s the review of the January 2015 expiration trades.
OPTIONS PURCHASED TO OPEN TRADE
| Contract | $/Contract | Buy Date |
| T Jan 15 2016 45.00 Call | $0.57 | 9/20/2013 |
| PPL Jan 15 2016 45.00 Call | $0.15 | 10/1/2013 |
| LLY Jan 15 2016 70.00 Call | $0.76 | 10/1/2013 |
| JNJ Jan 15 2016 115.00 Call | $1.18 | 10/4/2013 |
| INTC Jan 15 2016 35.00 Call | $0.43 | 10/4/2013 |
| DD Jan 15 2016 85.00 Call | $0.78 | 10/16/2013 |
| MW Jan 15 2016 65.00 Call | $0.40 | 10/31/2013 |
| KO Jan 15 2016 55.00 Call | $0.50 | 11/4/2013 |
| VZ Jan 15 2016 70.00 Call | $0.69 | 11/4/2013 |
| PPL Jan 15 2016 35.00 Call | $0.65 | 11/6/2013 |
| MCD Jan 15 2016 130.00 Call | $0.67 | 11/12/2013 |
| KRFT Jan 15 2016 75.00 Call | $0.54 | 11/12/2013 |
| MW Jan 15 2016 60.00 Call | $0.49 | 11/12/2013 |
| K Jan 15 2016 95.00 Call | $0.14 | 11/12/2013 |
| GE Jan 15 2016 40.00 Call | $0.25 | 11/14/2013 |
| WMT Jan 15 2016 115.00 Call | $0.27 | 11/15/2013 |
| FE Jan 15 2016 50.00 Call | $0.35 | 11/21/2013 |
| MO Jan 15 2016 50.00 Call | $0.24 | 11/25/2013 |
| CSCO Jan 15 2016 32.00 Call | $0.40 | 11/26/2013 |
| GIS Jan 15 2016 70.00 Call | $0.57 | 12/6/2013 |
| KMP Jan 15 2016 105.00 Call | $0.31 | 12/16/2013 |
| PFE Jan 15 2016 45.00 Call | $0.41 | 12/23/2013 |
| WM Jan 15 2016 60.00 Call | $0.40 | 1/3/2014 |
| EMR Jan 15 2016 100.00 Call | $0.75 | 1/3/2014 |
| POT Jan 15 2016 47.00 Call | $0.95 | 1/6/2014 |
| ETP Jan 15 2016 75.00 Call | $0.40 | 1/8/2014 |
| AFL Jan 15 2016 95.00 Call | $0.67 | 1/9/2014 |
| TGT Jan 15 2016 85.00 Call | $0.56 | 1/24/2014 |
| TWC Jan 15 2016 165.00 Call | $0.50 | 1/29/2014 |
| KMI Jan 15 2016 50.00 Call | $0.26 | 2/10/2014 |
| PG Jan 15 2016 110.00 Call | $0.55 | 2/13/2014 |
| HD Jan 15 2016 110.00 Call | $0.91 | 2/20/2014 |
| NYCB Jan 15 2016 22.00 Call | $0.15 | 2/20/2014 |
| SWY Jan 15 2016 47.00 Call | $0.36 | 3/6/2014 |
| ETR Jan 15 2016 80.00 Call | $0.60 | 3/6/2014 |
| MAT Jan 15 2016 55.00 Call | $0.45 | 3/11/2014 |
| DUK Jan 15 2016 90.00 Call | $0.55 | 3/14/2014 |
| HON Jan 15 2016 130.00 Call | $0.98 | 3/20/2014 |
| JPM Jan 15 2016 85.00 Call | $0.66 | 3/27/2014 |
| MRK Jan 15 2016 80.00 Call | $0.60 | 3/31/2014 |
| MMM Jan 15 2016 195.00 Call | $0.75 | 4/1/2014 |
| UTX Jan 15 2016 165.00 Call | $0.76 | 4/11/2014 |
| TRV Jan 15 2016 120.00 Call | $0.60 | 4/29/2014 |
| WFC Jan 15 2016 70.00 Call | $0.37 | 5/8/2014 |
| CVX Jan 15 2016 170.00 Call | $0.35 | 5/19/2014 |
| AEP Jan 15 2016 65.00 Call | $0.40 | 5/21/2014 |
| UNP Jan 15 2016 140.00 Call | $0.73 | 6/13/2014 |
| CAG Jan 15 2016 40.00 Call | $0.16 | 6/20/2014 |
| COP Jan 15 2016 110.00 Call | $0.70 | 6/25/2014 |
| USB Jan 15 2016 55.00 Call | $0.38 | 7/18/2014 |
| KMB Jan 15 2016 145.00 Call | $0.70 | 7/22/2014 |
| CL Jan 15 2016 80.00 Call | $0.66 | 8/1/2014 |
| CLX Jan 15 2016 110.00 Call | $0.51 | 8/5/2014 |
| BHP Jan 15 2016 90.00 Call | $0.77 | 9/4/2014 |
| BAX Jan 15 2016 95.00 Call | $0.48 | 9/9/2014 |
| LO Jan 15 2016 75.00 Call | $0.67 | 10/7/2014 |
| PEP Jan 15 2016 120.00 Call | $0.73 | 12/26/2014 |
OPTIONS SOLD TO CLOSE TRADE
| Contract | $/Contract | Sell Date |
| PPL Jan 15 2016 35.00 Call | $1.45 | 5/30/2014 |
| ETR Jan 15 2016 80.00 Call | $4.80 | 6/19/2014 |
| INTC Jan 15 2016 35.00 Call | $3.57 | 8/21/2014 |
| MO Jan 15 2016 50.00 Call | $2.79 | 11/10/2014 |
| LLY Jan 15 2016 70.00 Call | $4.80 | 12/2/2014 |
| KMI2 Jan 15 2016 105.00 Call | $5.58 | 12/29/2014 |
| CLX Jan 15 2016 110.00 Call | $5.40 | 1/22/2015 |
| AEP Jan 15 2016 65.00 Call | $3.30 | 1/28/2015 |
| HD Jan 15 2016 110.00 Call | $9.15 | 2/11/2015 |
| KRFT Jan 15 2016 75.00 Call | $7.70 | 3/25/2015 |
| TWC Jan 15 2016 165.00 Call | $10.70 | 5/20/2015 |
| MW Jan 15 2016 60.00 Call | $4.80 | 6/3/2015 |
| CAG Jan 15 2016 40.00 Call | $3.90 | 6/19/2015 |
| MW Jan 15 2016 65.00 Call | $4.90 | 6/22/2015 |
| TGT Jan 15 2016 85.00 Call | $4.10 | 6/23/2015 |
| BAX1 Jan 15 2016 95.00 Call | $0.01 | 12/21/2015 |
| KMB1 Jan 15 2016 145.00 Call | $0.01 | 12/21/2015 |
| RAI1 Jan 15 2016 75.00 Call | $1.76 | 12/21/2015 |
| MCD Jan 15 2016 130.00 Call | $0.01 | 12/21/2015 |
| TRV Jan 15 2016 120.00 Call | $0.02 | 12/21/2015 |
| DD1 Jan 15 2016 85.00 Call | $0.01 | 12/21/2015 |
Summary
I purchased 57 options in the period from September 20, 2013 through December 26, 2014.
I sold 15 options when the underlying stock reached its strike price before the January 2016 expiration date.
I also sold 6 other options on December 21, 2015 that were worth some small amounts, but would not very likely hit their strike prices before the January 15, 2016 expiration date. I made a mistake when doing this. I entered the trades when the market was closed and chose to “sell at market”. Since some of these were thinly traded and didn’t have any “bids”, they sold for pennies per contract. I probably lost about $200 in value due to that mistake, so not a crazy amount, but enough to help me remember the lesson.
That leaves 36 trades that expired worthless.
I purchased to open $3077/contract in trades, with $5 * 57 = $285 in commissions, (I’m estimating $5 per trade), for a total of $3362/contract paid out.
I sold to close $7876/contract, with $5 * 21 = $105 in commissions for a total of $7771/contract in deposits.
That means my return from September 20, 2013 through January 2016 was ($7771 – $3362)/$3362 = 131%…or roughly 66% per year.
Also note that by 1/28/2015, the winning trades had already paid for all of the trades I would place in this group. Any trades that paid off in the year after that were pure profit.
It’s okay to be wrong…what matters is the magnitude of the times you are right, and the minimizing of the pain from the times you are wrong.
Note the opposite could also happen…being right 99% of the time, but those 1% wrong times could wipe you out.
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